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☆ The Fed took a break from hiking rates for the first time in 15 months. Here's what to know.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

If you missed yesterday's Federal Reserve decision — and how the market reacted — you've come to the right place. In this March 21, 2018, file photo, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from the March meeting of its policymakers on Wednesday, April 11. US stock futures edge lower early Thursday after the Federal Reserve paused rate hikes but hinted there were more to come. The housing market is so tight right now because 90% of homeowners are already locked into low mortgage rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Carolyn Kaster, it'll, there's, Powell, Dow Jones, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, it's, Martin Puddy, that's, Elon Musk's, Goldman Sachs, Musk, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Max Adams, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Bank, Fed, Bank of America Locations: Washington, Silicon, insider.com, Beijing, China, Detroit, New York, London

☆ The tech rally is entering the bubble domain, says JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe tech rally is entering the bubble domain, says JPMorgan's Marko KolanovicMarko Kolanovic, JPMorgan chief global markets strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the tech rally's run and markets.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Marko Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Stock ETFs are seeing accelerated inflows even as grimmer Wall Street predictions warn of a bear market ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stock ETFs pulled in more than $12.6 billion in April, according to data from Bloomberg. It's the largest inflow into such funds since January and more than double the pace seen in February and March. Investors are pouring large amounts into equity ETFs even as Wall Street predictions warn of a bear market ahead. Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni wrote: "In late October, we concluded that sentiment was so bearish it had to be bullish." Then, the current bull market is likely to resume, in our opinion," according to the Yardeni Research founder.

☆ 0DTE options could turn 5% intraday market decline into 25% rout -JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 6 (Reuters) - Trading in new near-dated U.S. options contracts can supercharge volatility in U.S. stocks, potentially leading to tremendous intraday declines, analysts at JPMorgan said. The U.S. equity options market has seen a rise in the trading of options contracts set to expire at the end of the trading day - dubbed 0DTE (zero day to expiry) options - with their daily notional value rising to about $1 trillion, according to JPMorgan data. Their recent growth has been eyed as one cause of intraday volatility, with JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic last month warning they could spark a massive volatility event under certain circumstances. Such a scenario could occur if the S&P 500 fell 5% in five minutes, triggering $30.5 billion in 0DTE option-related trading that would tack another 20 percentage points onto the index's decline, the bank’s analysts said. Furthermore, JPM noted that retail traders were not the main driver of volume growth in 0DTE options, with individual investors accounting for about 20% of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY.P) options volume and only around 5% of the S&P 500 same-day options.

☆ Bank of America's stock chief warns the S&P 500 could fall another 26% as valuations remain too elevated and decades of market history show half of the criteria for a bottom still aren't being met
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 3,000, they said. In a note this week, Wilson said that the S&P 500 remains overvalued relative to history by price-to-earnings and price-to-sales metrics. S&P 500 P/E multiples are 9% above their median while P/Sales multiples are 23% above median," Wilson said. "History implies that for the current level of real rates the S&P 500 multiple is ~2.5x overvalued," the chief market strategist said. Wilson's end-of-year target for the S&P 500 is 3,900, while Krishna and Kolanovic have targets of 3,725 and 4,200, respectively.

☆ The Fed's own economists are warning of a 19.5% housing correction and more rate hikes could set off a 'domino effect'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

For more on that, I recommended reading my colleague Dan DeFrancesco's excellent 10 Things on Wall Street newsletter. And for today, let's see why the Fed's own economists are warning of a nearly 20% housing correction. They argued US home prices would have to tumble nearly 20% to bring the housing market back to fundamentals — and additional Fed rate hikes could lead to an even worse housing correction. Have you entered or exited the housing market in the last year? These four charts explain the troubling state of the housing market right now.

☆ Interest rates suggest the stock market is wildly overvalued, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is wildly overvalued based on current interest rates, according to JPMorgan. Interest rates have surged over the past year, with the 2-year US Treasury note yielding just over 4.8% as of Tuesday morning compared to just 1.3% a year ago. Such a swift surge in interest rates has put pressure on market valuations while at the same time exposing vulnerabilities in corporate profits. "History implies that for the current level of real rates the S&P 500 multiple is ~2.5x overvalued," Kolanovic warned. That's a marked shift from expectations of rate cuts just a few weeks ago, and could keep strong downward pressure on the stock market.

☆ Reddit-loving retail investors are making their chaotic presence felt again - and their risky behavior is fueling a stock rally that doesn't look sustainable
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bullish sentiment has returned in a big way among retail investors as they've started the year piling record amounts into stocks. Speculative bets are backSome of what retail investors are buying has troubled observers. Different from 2021, however, is that institutional and retail investors look like they're on the same team, at least to a noticeable degree. To JPMorgan's Kolanovic, retail investors' optimism foreshadows future weakness in the stock market, as weak hands get wiped out by volatility, similar to how 2022 played out. With the Fed still set to tighten monetary policy, retail investors' enthusiasm for risky assets could backfire like it did last year.

☆ Here's why Wall Street's top analysts don't think the bear market is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Strategists across Wall Street are warning stocks are in for more pain, despite the strong start to 2023. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson compared investors buying stocks now with ill-prepared climbers on Mount Everest. Here's what experts at some of the biggest banks are saying about what's ahead for stocks. Morgan Stanley's top strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note this week that stocks have soared too high too fast, and those highs will ultimately prove unsustainable. He said the bidding-up of these speculative stocks suggests a bout of massive market volatility could be just around the corner.

☆ You could see 5% more downward pressure on the markets, says JPMorgan's Kolanovic
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou could see 5% more downward pressure on the markets, says JPMorgan's KolanovicJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss where he sees the markets headed right now, as well as what he thinks the Fed is going to do.

☆ The stock market has been flipped and investors are taunting the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

As my colleague Matthew Fox writes, the stock market has been completely flipped upside down so far in 2023. This is the type of trading behavior you'd expect to see when interest rates are closer to 0% than 5%. To Kolanovic, the errant investor behavior foreshadows a plunge in the stock market. US stock futures fall early Tuesday, as investors stay worried that persistent inflation means interest rates will stay higher for longer. SoFi's Liz Young warned that a lack of reserve funds could stop this year's stock market rally: "What the equity market is not pricing in at this point, or is not worried enough about, is consumer spending."

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Marko KolanovicJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss where he sees markets headed right now, as well as what he thinks the Fed is going to do.

☆ A boom in one corner of the options market could bring 'volmageddon' and jolt the stock market in a big way
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rising popularity of short-term options poses a big threat to the stock market, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. Zero-day-to-expiry options allow traders to hedge market positions over a very short period of time. According to Kolanovic, the rise of these option strategies could amplify any up or down move in the stock market. Kolanovic's reference to "volmageddon" is rooted in the February 2018 stock market scare that saw a surge in market volatility and a massive drop in stock prices as investors grew concerned about the potential ramifications of former President Donald Trump's trade war with China. But that downside move was amplified by a volatility implosion tied to the rising popularity of inverse VIX products, which represent bets against the future direction of market volatility.

☆ Wall Street luminaries say it's time to get out of the stock market before the Fed crushes the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Tuesday's CPI data showed inflation climbed 0.5% in January, slightly higher than expected, and year-over-year it slowed to 6.4%. Prices, it seems, aren't cooling down as smoothly or quickly as anyone wants, especially the Fed. To Kolanovic, a recession is all but guaranteed if the Fed is serious about its 2% inflation target. And like Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management investment chief Lisa Shalett warned that Fed policy is going to pull stocks lower. US stock futures fall early Wednesday, as investors pick over yesterday's CPI inflation report to assess what it means for the Fed.

☆ JPMorgan’s top strategist says investors are 'taunting' the Fed and a sell-off is overdue
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors are messing with the wrong central bank, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said Wednesday. "There is an old adage, 'don't fight the Fed,' but this behavior is not just fighting but also taunting the Fed with crypto, meme stocks, and unprofitable companies responding best to Fed communications," Kolanovic, the bank's chief global market strategist, said in a note to clients. He pointed out that since the Fed's rate hike on Feb. 1 , the Nasdaq-100 has climbed around 3%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury note yield has jumped about 60 basis points in that time. US2Y YTD mountain 2-year note yield in 2023 This type of market behavior could lead to a sell-off in short order, according to Kolanovic.

☆ Why all the big bank equity analysts think the market is going to drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a stellar start to 2023, many big bank analysts are skeptical that this rally can continue and urge investors to prepare for another leg lower. "We believe investors should fade the YTD rally as recession risks are merely postponed rather than diminished," wrote JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic in a January note to clients. Meanwhile, Barclays' Venu Krishna wrote in a Monday note that equities have "jumped the gun." Several factors, including falling recession risks and a correction in the CBOE Volatility Index and other spreads, also support a long-due fade in the market rally, wrote Credit Suisse's Patrick Palfrey in a January note. "We continue to recommend that equity investors position defensively and be prepared for additional volatility ahead," she said.

☆ JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic explains why he's "outright negative" on stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic explains why he's "outright negative" on stocksJPMorgan Chief Market Strategist Marko Kolanovic joins CNBC's "Fast Money" to discuss his outlook on the U.S. stock market.

☆ 'Outright negative' on stocks: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic braces for correction, hard landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is abstaining from the early 2023 rally. Instead, the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer is bracing for a 10% or more correction in the first half of this year, telling investors he's "outright negative" on the market. So, that has to clash at some point," the firm's chief market strategist and global research co-head told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday. "We think things first turn south, get much worse," said Kolanovic. Kolanovic believes they helped create a narrative the worse is behind us and a recession "somehow magically " happened last year.

☆ Investors should sell stocks and take profits as the latest rally is set to falter amid surprises from the Fed and weak corporate earnings, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should sell stocks and take profits as the current market rally is set to fizzle, according to JPMorgan. The bank said stocks will face several curveballs this year thrown by the Fed and weak corporate earnings. "We... are reluctant to chase the past week's rally as recession and overtightening risks remain high," JPMorgan said. Given the risk-reward profile, JPMorgan increased its underweight recommendation for equities and took profits in credit in its model portfolio. While JPMorgan has a bearish view on stocks in the short-term, longer term it still sees the potential for upside.

☆ S&P lows likely be re-tested early next year, says JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P lows likely be re-tested early next year, says JPMorgan's Marko KolanovicMarko Kolanovic, JPMorgan chief global markets strategist, joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss JPMorgan's market call around a growing recession risk and the possibility markets could retest their lows early next year.

☆ Stocks are likely to get smacked down in the first half of 2023 before markets improve
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The outlook for next year is a bit better for stocks, but the first half sounds like it could be downright ugly. The strategist expects lows to be retested due to what could be a significant decline in earnings as interest rates rise. Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab's chief global investment strategist, expects a shallow recession may already have begun. He predicts the first half will be worse for stocks than the back half of the year, with a choppiness similar to the past six months. Calvasina expects small caps to be an area of outperformance, and she still sees value in energy and financials.

☆ The stock market won't see a sustained rally until the Fed starts cutting interest rates - and that won't occur until these 3 things happen, according to JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market won't see a sustained rally until the Fed starts to cut interest rates, JPMorgan said. The Fed will need to see a combination of three things to start cutting interest rates, according to JPMorgan. Instead, the Fed needs to cut interest rates for the stock market to mount a sustained rally that could give way to new highs. And a resilient economy means the likelihood of interest rate cuts is far off, according to JPMorgan. Until then, investors shouldn't put too much stock in a stock market rally unless the Fed gives signs that it's going to pivot away from tightening and towards easing financial conditions.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with JPMorgan's Marko KolanovicMarko Kolanovic, JPMorgan chief global market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the Fed, recession, Big Tech earnings reports and what it all means for the market.

☆ The sell-off in Chinese stocks is 'disconnected from fundamentals' and presents an opportunity to investors, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic called the Chinese sell-off "disconnected from fundamentals." "We believe this is a good opportunity to add given an expected growth recovery," he said. But JPMorgan chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic is unfazed by Monday's decline, calling the sell-off "disconnected from fundamentals" and a buying opportunity for investors in a Monday note. He is ultimately betting that the Chinese economy will experience a recovery in growth as the COVID-19 pandemic begins to fade. We believe this is a good opportunity to add given an expected growth recovery, gradual COVID reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus," he said.

☆ Investors' cash pile is the largest in 21 years. Here's what that means and why it could signal a rally is on the way in 2023.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's a massive amount of cash on the sidelines right now as markets suffer through extreme bouts of volatility and investors remain skittish. Investors' cash pile is the largest since April 2001. Which bring us to the next part of BofA's prediction — that this cash pile will fuel a rally in 2023. I-Bonds have gained immense popularity this year given deeply negative stock market returns and high inflation. Just three weeks away, the elections will still likely have implications for areas of the stock market.

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